How We Win
HANDICAPPING IS A BUSINESS, NOT A GAME. YOUR HARD-EARNED MONEY IS ON THE LINE!
Professional handicappers employ at least 3 different techniques to break down football games against the spread.
SITUATIONAL HANDICAPPING…
Many bettors like to use “peaks and valleys” handicapping in certain situations. The theory is that if a team plays over its head and wins or suffers a close loss against a superior opponent then that team will have a let down the following week so they may be vulnerable against even a weaker opponent.For example: In 2009 Arkansas fought tooth and nail against then top ranked Florida, but fell by a field goal 23 to 20. The following week the Razorbacks were hammered by Ole Miss 30 to 17.
Another 2009 example would be the hapless Cleveland Browns rising up and beating their arch-rivals, the Steelers, 13 to 6 when they were 10 point dogs. The next week against another, equally hapless team, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Browns lost by a TD when they were only 2 ½ point dogs and many pundits were picking them to win.
CONTRARIAN HANDICAPPING
Pros know that the line DOES NOT reflect the strength of the teams involved, but RATHER IS A REFLECTION OF THE PUBLIC’S PERCEPTION OF A TEAM’S STRENGTH. The books are not trying to predict outcomes when they post lines. They are trying to gauge the betting public so they can balance their books. Teams the public likes are overbet and the lines reflect that.
A 2009 example of bad lines on an over bet team would showcase the Pittsburgh Steelers. Coming off a Super Bowl win, the Steelers lost five of their first six games against the spread last year even though straight up they 4 of 6 in those games. Despite that, the public kept betting them. For the year, the Steelers spread record was a dismal 5-10-1.
TREND HANDICAPPING
Many players keep extensive records of how teams perform in certain situations. Trends do show how players and coaches react in certain situations—early season readiness, road awareness, home field advantage. But in colleges and pros, trends are only good so long as the same coaching philosophy is in place this year that developed the trends in past years.
An example of successful Trend Handicapping in 2009 would be the rivalry between Cal and Stanford. Going into last year’s match, Cal was on a 6-2 spread streak against the Cardinal. Despite being underdogs, Cal won that game outright and beat the spread, running their record to 7-2 last nine plays. This year Cal and Stanford play on Nov. 20.
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