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The best play in Week 4 NFL betting was once again the OVERS.  9 winners 6 losers and a push netted a +2.4 units for the Over backers.

The Overs were also the top plays in Weeks 1 and 2.  The Unders were able to win Week 3.  But overall, scoring has been up and the Overs are hitting.

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9 Nfl teams scored 30+ points in Week 4, up from 6 teams in week 3. Green Bay topped the list with 49 points. Baltimore 34, Chicago 34, Detroit 34, New York Giants 31, Tennessee 31, New England 31, Dallas 30 and Atlanta 30.  For the first time this year, no teams scored in single digits in Week 4.

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Detroit and San Francisco are the top 2 teams ATS with 3-0-1 records. Ten teams have a 3-1 ATS record including Green Bay, Baltimore, Houston, New England, New Orleans, New York, Washington, Cincinnati, Oakland, and Carolina.

Miami and St Louis have not covered a spread this season.

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We saw a wider margin of victory in Week 4.

Only 2 of the 16 games were decided by 3 points or less. Cincinnati and Atlanta both won close contests.

A whopping 9 games were decided by 7 points or more.

Green Bay Packers had the largest margin of victory (26) in a 49 – 23 beating of the Denver Broncos.

The Atlanta Falcons had the smallest margin of victory (2) in their 30 – 28 victory over Seattle Seahawks

The best play in Week 3 NFL betting was the Underdogs.  10 winners 5 losers and a push netted a very nice +4.5 units for the dog backers.

Home dogs were really impressive, racking up 4 wins against only 2 losers and a push. Indianapolis covered their double-digit spread while Buffalo +270, Cleveland +110 and Oakland +115 won outright and ATS.

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Unders finally topped the Overs in Week 3. The Unders posted a 10-6 record for Week 3.  The Overs had been the better play for the first two weeks.

6 Nfl teams scored 30+ points in Week 3, down from 9 in Week 2. New Orleans topped the list with 40 points.  Baltimore 37, Buffalo 34, Oakland 34, Houston 33 and New England 31.  Only 2 Nfl teams scored in single-digits in Week 3.  Cincinnati scored 8 and St Louis put up 7.

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Houston and New England both lost straight and ATS in Week 3.  There are no NFL teams that are undefeated ATS after 3 weeks.

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Games were closer in Week 3.

9 of the 16 games were decided by 3 points or less.

5 games were decided by 7 points or more.

Baltimore Ravens had the largest margin of victory (30) in a 37 – 7 rout of the St Louis Rams.

The Cleveland Browns had the smallest margin of victory (1) in their 17 – 16 victory over Miami.

The best play in Week 2 NFL betting was the Over for the second straight week.  9 winners 5 losers and a push netted a +3.5 units for the Over backers.

  • Overs in games with higher totals, 40 and over, were the top plays.  A whopping 13 games were lined at 40 or higher, as oddsmakers adjusted to the Week 1 Overs– 8 of these games cashed for Over backers for a plus 3.6 units.

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  • 9 Nfl teams scored 30+ points in Week 2, up from 7 in Week 1. Detroit topped the list with 48 points.  Buffalo 38, New England 35, Oakland 35, Atlanta 35, New York Jets 32, Philadelphia 31, New Orleans  30, and Green Bay 30.  Only 3 Nfl teams scored in single-digits in Week 1.  Kansas City (of course), and Jacksonville scored 3 points each and Seattle was skunked.
  • The favorites bounced back to win a small victory in Week 2, going 8-7-1.  New Orleans, Detroit, New York Jets, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New York Giants, Houston and New England were favorites who covered the spread.

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  • Houston and New England are the only 2 teams that have been favorites and covered in the first two weeks.
  • Home favorites had a nice week at 6-4 gaining +1.6 units.

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  • 9 of the 16 games were decided by 7 points or more.
  • 4 games were decided by 3 points or less.
  • Detroit Lions had the largest margin of victory (45) in a 48 – 3 rout of the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs were also the whipping boys of the league in Week 1.
  • The Washington Redskins had the smallest margin of victory (1) in their 22 – 21 squeaker over Arizona.

The best play in Week 1 NFL betting was the Over.  10 winners 4 losers and a push netted a +5.6 units for the Over backers.

  • Over plays in games with lower totals, 39.5 and under, were the top plays.  Six games were lined at 39.5 or under – 5 of these games cashed for Over backers for a plus 3.9 units.

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  • 7 Nfl teams scored 30+ points in Week 1. Buffalo topped the list with 41 points.  New England 38, Baltimore 35, Houston 34, San Francisco 33, Philadelphia 31, Chicago 30.  Only 3 Nfl teams scored in single-digits in Week 1.  Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis scored 7 points each.
  • The underdogs also took a bite out of the favorites as 9 dogs were winners compared to just 5 favorite winners.  One game landed on the total of -7.

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  • Road dogs were profitable in Week 1 going 6-3-1 for a plus 2.7 units.
  • Favorites who covered: Baltimore, San Francisco, New England, Philadelphia, and Houston.
  • Teams with new head coaches did not fare very well.  Of the 8 teams with new HCs, only San Francisco (Jim Harbaugh) and Oakland (Hue Jackson) were victors in Week 1.

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  • 11 of the 14 games were decided by 7 points or more.
  • 3 games were decided by 3 points or less.
  • Buffalo Bills had the largest margin of victory (34) in the 41 – 7 rout of the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars had the smallest margin of victory (2) in their 16 – 14 win over Tennessee.

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Last year’s Gravy Train Cash Cow Award goes to … the Detroit Lions.  A 12-4 ATS record banked + 7.6 units for all the Motor City backers. The Lions covered 5 of 8 road contests and went 7-1  at home.  So far, they have covered all 3 pre-season games this year.

2. Atlanta Falcons, 11-5 ATS.  6-2 Road and 5-3 Home makes for a very solid campaign. + 5.5 Units

3. New England Patriots, 10-5-1 ATS.  6-2 Road warriors but so-so 4-3-1 at Gillette. +4.5 Units

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9-5-2 ATS. Top overall Road play, 7-0-1, but  a losing team at home, 2-5-1. +3.5 Units

5. St Louis Rams, 10-6 ATS. Home and Road winners 5-3…consistent. +3.4 Units

6. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-6 ATS. Another consistent winning play, 5-3 Home and Road ATS. +3.4 Units

7. *Chicago Bears, 9-6-1 were a strong 5-2-1 ATS play on the road but average at home, 4-4 ATS. +2.8 Units (*Road only)

8. *Baltimore Ravens, 8-7-1 were another road play, 5-2-1 ATS but not a good home play, 3-5 ATS. +2.8 Units (*Road only)

9. *San Diego Chargers,8-7-1 ATS was strong at home, 6-2 but did not travel well, 2-5-1. +3.8 Units (*Home only)

10. *Miami Dolphins, 8-8 overall but an impressive 6-2 ATS Road play. +3.8 Units (*Road only)

Honorable Mention: Washington Redskins 8-5-3 Overall ATS, +2.5 Units;  Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, and New York Jets were all 9-7 Overall ATS, + 1.3 Units.

QUARTERBACK
Returning starter Geno Smith was able to practice and play this spring and that was great news considering he was questionable with another off-season foot surgery. Why was that important? Brand new offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Dana Holgorsen is implementing a completely new system. Getting reps and grasping this playbook is a necessary springboard for August. Mission accomplished as Smith finished 26-of-37 for 388 yards and four touchdowns in the spring game finale, albeit against the second team defense. Smith was able to make his cuts with both feet and showed no ill effects from his foot surgery. But Smith won’t be running with the ball in this offense. The days of quarterbacks being at the top of the rushing statistics are over. Last season Smith was criticized at times for his poor decisions and badly timed turnovers. But much of that blame was also directed at inept coaching, henceforth opening the door for the WVU administration to chase after Holgorsen. Look for Geno Smith to thrive in this system. He shows good form, a quick release and should excel in this offense throwing the ball. The back ups however are both true freshmen who enrolled early and that’s not a good sign at all should Smith go down at some point. Texas hurler Paul Millard came out on top this spring after leading the nation in passing as a high school senior. Also in the mix is Brian Athey from Minnesota, the grandson of WVU commentator Dwight Wallace. He is likely in line for a redshirt season barring injuries at this position.

West Virginia Mountaineers

RUNNING BACK
With Noel Devine moving on WVU will begin the season without a proven commodity at running back for the first time since 2005. Combine this with the fact the new offense is geared to air it out and the uncertainty of this 2011 rushing attack only gets bigger. That probably creates an uneasy feeling for Mountaineer fans knowing the last decade’s bread and butter has been one of the nation’s most prolific ground games. The identity of this offense is about to change in a major way and this is the one area that gets the majority of the facelift. New running back Coach Robert Gillespie divides his backfield between A backs (the lead ball carrier) and B backs (the blockers). Returning lead rusher Ryan Clarke has proven to be a force in short yardage and then some. The bullish 250-pounder looks like a nice fit for the blocking B-back spot and he will likely also see time at A-back where his rushing skills can be taken advantage of in different ways. Clarke sat out the spring after suffering torn cartilage in his knee during from the first scrimmage which allowed former walk-on Matt Lindamood to get most of the No. 1 reps. At the A-back spot Trey Johnson has carried the ball with authority thus far. He and true freshman Vernard Roberts, who enrolled early and led all rushers in the spring game, are smallish scat back types. Shawne Alston spelled Noel Devine last season when Devine was suffering with injury. He is the big back option between the tackles but also had his spring cut short with a sprained neck. The Morgantown chatter is that incoming freshman Andrew Buie will have a chance to be the featured ball carrier. Expect the carries to be split up. Getting anything close to a 1,000-yard back doesn’t seem likely under this scenario.

RECEIVER
One or maybe two of these receivers is going to be a star, count on it. And that is something else that will be a newly welcomed sight to Mountaineer fans. Who is the next Michael Crabtree or the next Justin Blackmon – two of the All-American, record setting receivers that have flourished under offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen? That is how this offense works where an underrated high school prospect with gifted athletic skills can post colossal numbers in this “Air Raid”. The good news is that WVU has several of these types. The base sets will include four receivers, nothing new in Morgantown. What’s different is how they line up and get utilized. With two inside receivers and two outside receivers everybody gets a shot. At the top of the heap is all-time Maryland prep career rusher Tavon Austin. He is the team’s returning leading pass catcher but way too many times last year was ignored down the stretch. He can torment defenses across the middle using his shiftiness to turn short passes into big gainers. He has proven capable of stretching the field with his top end speed. If ever there was a player begging to be unshackled in a wide-open passing system, it is Tavon Austin. Another capable receiver that has proven to make clutch plays in tight spaces is Stedman Bailey. He has a chance to build on a stellar freshman campaign. Bailey lacks elite athleticism and size but has the ability to make the highlight catches. Along with Bradley Starks, Ivan McCartney is the tallest receiver in the rotation standing at 6’3. A ton of expectations have been placed on the shoulders of the Miramar, FL high school star. He possesses that elite NFL size and speed but he has yet to display anything that would leave coaches to believe he can contribute immediately. The former quarterback Starks was lost for the spring with a shoulder injury but if healthy is expected to finally make some noise his senior campaign. J.D. Woods turned out to be a nice surprise last season catching 18 passes. He can make a nice fifth or sixth option providing the needed depth although there may not be enough balls to go around. Pat White’s brother Coley, also a former quarterback, is now a full-time receiver in the mix. Ryan Nehlen, grandson of Hall of Fame WVU coach Don Nehlen, won the award this spring as the top walk-on and is good enough to see time on the field. There won’t be a tight end in these formations so Tyler Urban will be used as an inside receiver to create mismatches with smaller defensive backs. There really are quite a few options here, although Coach Holgorsen is still concerned with the lack of numbers. That’s how many receivers are required to work his magic.

OFFENSIVE LINE
This front wall is the biggest offensive question mark heading into the season once again. These same linemen crippled the offense on many occasions last year while failing to open holes for a once proud ground game. University of Arizona line coach and co-offensive coordinator Bill Bedenbaugh has been hired to resurrect this unit. His efforts were not made any easier when starting tackles Don Barclay and Jeff Braun sat out the spring with off-season shoulder surgery. The only silver lining was that young bull elephants Quentin Spain and Pat Eger got a chance to run with the first group while building the depth factor. It would not be surprising to see one of these mammoths wind up being the starter before 2011 comes to a close. Spain has a great upside after losing weight this winter while finding a dedication in the weight room. All-Big East senior Don Barclay has played in 39 career games, starting 27 and is the veteran of the group while Braun led the offensive line with 48 knockdowns and five thunderbolt blocks last year. Parkersburg product Josh Jenkins was once considered the number one high school player coming out of the state of West Virginia. He needs to rise up and perform like a college senior for this line to take an extensive step forward. Four starters are back and there is no reason for the continued sub par results. It might take a while for this group to get comfortable in the new system, which could slow down the early progress.

DEFENSIVE LINE
This defensive line did its job last year, that’s for sure. Those hefty numbers don’t lie. They helped lead a defense that ranked second nationally against the rush and second nationally at producing sacks. Two key clogs have departed in Scooter Berry and Chris Neild. The pass rush will still continue to rank with the best of them though, as defensive end Bruce Irvin should be the star of the defense. Irvin was a pass rushing specialist who emerged on the scene last fall as a first year JUCO transfer by recording 14 sacks while playing primarily on third downs. He has been working extremely hard to make the transition of being an every down player. After adding six pounds to his size while hitting the weight room, the senior is sure to garner double team attention from opposing teams. That leaves fellow senior Julian Miller on the other side to wreak havoc. Miller is actually the only returning starter on this line. He posted nine sacks in each of the past two seasons but has been moved from end to tackle in this 3-man defensive alignment. This will give Irvin more opportunities on the outside. Miller may weigh in a little light on the scale to play tackle but his quickness should be an advantage. Will Clarke showed promise at the beginning of last season before being slowed by a high ankle sprain. He will back up Irvin and with continued success can find time in certain packages. The battle to replace the wide-bodied (and NFL bound) bulldog Neild won’t be as simple. Jorge Wright and Josh Taylor have appeared in a combined 44 games. Wright made a move this spring to take over but his efforts got derailed after being suspended indefinitely for an arrest on May 3. Taylor has performed in more games and seen more starts. This line will be lighter in 2011, but it will also be quicker. It’s shaping up to continue being the best pass rush in the Big East. Continued achievement at stopping the run could be another story.

LINEBACKER
As with many positions on defense WVU will be looking for some new faces to step in at linebacker. No other unit will go through this much of a rebuilding effort with familiar names such as J.T. Thomas, Pat Lazear and Anthony Leonard graduating. The experience level is desperately slim. Holding down the fort will be fifth-year senior Najee Goode who luckily can play all three spots. The question is where does he fit best? Ironically, the official WVU spring depth chart has Goode starting at both the strong side and the weak side. While that scenario is comically impossible, it does demonstrate the need for someone else to step up. If Goode starts on the strong side that opens the door for Josh Francis, who just participated in his first spring here, on the weak side. Francis came from Lackawanna Jr. College in Scranton, PA where he was tabbed a First Team JUCO All-American. Francis emerging as a dependable starter would provide a huge boost. Currently operating with the first group on this side is senior walk-on Casey Vance. Another option is for two sophomores to start the opener in Branko Busick and Doug Rigg. The middle dons the least experience where Busick finished with three tackles on the season. His backup Jewone Snow redshirted. Between the two of them they registered fewer tackles than receiver J.D. Woods. At least Rigg saw some action last year and could be an option on the strong side. The New Jersey prepster played in all 13 games a year ago as a back up. Defensive Coordinator Jeff Casteel has proven he can produce more with less. This bunch has its shortcomings and Casteel will need to do his best work yet to make sure this group doesn’t spell disaster, especially early in the season.

DEFENSIVE BACK
Jeff Casteel will continue to implement the 3-3-5 stack defense, which equates to a need for quality defensive backs and plenty of them. Maintaining the numbers despite the loss of three key performers does not appear to be a problem with a young pipeline filling the gaps. Talent seems to be sufficient but experience does not. Rivals.com named Keith Tandy a Third Team All-American last December after leading the Big East with six interceptions. He will be the leader in this secondary. The departure of Brandon Hogan at the other cornerback spot won’t be easy to replace. Pat Miller is the front-runner after posting two starts a year ago. The speedy junior from Hoover High in Birmingham, AL was primarily used on third down situations so he knows what it takes to be in crucial situations. Washington DC product Avery Williams enrolled early as a true freshman this January and is making strides every day. He could wind up as part of this rotation. Spur safety Terence Garvin could be the best player in this secondary. After leading the team in tackles in 2011 as just a sophomore, Garvin is an imposing figure that has a great future. At free safety is Eain Smith who sat out the spring with injury. Smith has a reputation for being in the coaches’ doghouse, which means the door for talented youngster Travis Bell is wide open. Bell played in all 13 games as a true freshman. He is the tallest safety and can reportedly launch off the synthetic turf. The lack of experience is immediately felt at bandit safety where Darwin Cook was used solely as a back up last year. Pushing him is Wes Tonkery who redshirted. Overall, this unit cannot be expected to maintain the same type of production compared to a year ago. Nor will it meet the same potential as what could have been if Robert Sands had stayed in school. The cupboard is not bare by any means however and is far ahead of where this unit was just two seasons ago when Coach Lockwood took over.

Kicker Tyler Bitancurt returns after an extremely disappointing and inconsistent 2010 effort where he went 10-of-17 on field goal attempts. Bitancurt was selected as a First Team All-Big East selection in 2009 before his sophomore slump. He was just 2-of-7 from 40 yards and out. But his understanding of technique sets him apart from Corey Smith at present. This will be the fourth year in a row WVU needs to find a new punter. Big leg Corey Smith may not win the place kicker job but has the leading edge here. In 2007, the Musselman High Schooler was the best kicker/punter combination in the state. He enrolled at Alabama but found his way home transferring to Morgantown. Smith debuted as the kickoff man last year where eight of his boots resulted in touchbacks doubling the amount from the year prior. Broderick Jenkins is currently first in line to handle the punt returns. The turbo charged defensive back out of Fort Myers, FL has yet to catch a punt in a Blue and Gold uniform however. When it comes to returning kicks offs, just put Tavon Austin back deep and get out of the way. His average took a dip from the big year he had as a true frosh in ’09, which could be contributed to a shoulder injury he battled through. The early projection has Bradley Starks, one of the five fastest on the team, flanking Austin. This of course assumes Starks can recover from an injury bug that has plagued the senior. Coaches are looking for more production in the return department and hope to rectify the situation as they hired Daron Roberts away from the Detroit Lions to handle the special teams.

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