NFL Handicapping: Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints

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Sep 202011

NFL Handicapping previews an AFC South vs. NFC South matchup on Sunday, when the Houston Texans battle the New Orleans Saints at the Louisiana Superdome (1 pm ET, CBS).

The Saints opened as 5.5-point favorites but were quickly bet down to -3.5. New Orleans is a -210 moneyline favorite while Houston is a +175 underdog. The over/under total is up slightly to 53 from the opening of 52.5.

Head-to-head, the teams have met just twice in the past eight years, splitting the two matchups both straight up and against the spread. When they last squared off in 2007, Houston won 23-10 and cashed as a 1-point home favorite, with the score staying under the total of 50.

The Texans (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) beat the winless Miami Dolphins 23-13 on Sunday, covering the spread as a 3-point road underdog. The score was under the total of 47.

The Saints (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) beat the Chicago Bears 30-13 in their home opener on Sunday. New Orleans covered as a 4.5-point home favorite with the score was under the total of 46.

NFL Betting Trends have Houston at 4-8 SU in its last 12 games overall. The Texans have been even worse on the road, going 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven away from home. The total has gone over in four of Houston’s last six on the road.

New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last six overall and 4-1 SU in its last five at home. The total has gone under in four of the Saints last five at home.

Posted by Mike Reynolds at 8:44 pm Tagged with: , , , , , , ,

NFL Week 2 Picks in Review

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Sep 202011

The best play in Week 2 NFL betting was the Over for the second straight week.  9 winners 5 losers and a push netted a +3.5 units for the Over backers.

  • Overs in games with higher totals, 40 and over, were the top plays.  A whopping 13 games were lined at 40 or higher, as oddsmakers adjusted to the Week 1 Overs– 8 of these games cashed for Over backers for a plus 3.6 units.

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  • 9 Nfl teams scored 30+ points in Week 2, up from 7 in Week 1. Detroit topped the list with 48 points.  Buffalo 38, New England 35, Oakland 35, Atlanta 35, New York Jets 32, Philadelphia 31, New Orleans  30, and Green Bay 30.  Only 3 Nfl teams scored in single-digits in Week 1.  Kansas City (of course), and Jacksonville scored 3 points each and Seattle was skunked.
  • The favorites bounced back to win a small victory in Week 2, going 8-7-1.  New Orleans, Detroit, New York Jets, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New York Giants, Houston and New England were favorites who covered the spread.

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  • Houston and New England are the only 2 teams that have been favorites and covered in the first two weeks.
  • Home favorites had a nice week at 6-4 gaining +1.6 units.

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  • 9 of the 16 games were decided by 7 points or more.
  • 4 games were decided by 3 points or less.
  • Detroit Lions had the largest margin of victory (45) in a 48 – 3 rout of the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs were also the whipping boys of the league in Week 1.
  • The Washington Redskins had the smallest margin of victory (1) in their 22 – 21 squeaker over Arizona.
Posted by GSP1 at 9:59 am Tagged with: , , , , ,

Sports Picks: San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

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Sep 192011

Sports Picks looks at a big MLB Betting matchup on Tuesday, when the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers open a three-game set at Dodger Stadium.

This series has a lot of implications for the Wild Card hopes of the Giants, who will try to sneak into the MLB Playoffs to defend the World Series title they captured last season.

MLB Odds for the opener had the Dodgers opening as a -140 moneyline favorite and the Giants a +120 underdog, but Los Angeles has been bet down to -120 and San Francisco up to +115.

MLB Picks bettors know the main reasons for the line movement are the importance of this game to the Giants’ Wild Card chances, and the fact they are one of the hottest teams in Major League Baseball, winning eight straight.

Going into action Monday, the Giants were four games back of the Atlanta Braves in the National League Wild Card race, and just a half-game back of the second-place St. Louis Cardinals.

And in the head-to-head series, San Francisco has won seven of the 11 meetings with the Dodgers this season.

But perhaps the biggest story is the pitching duel for the opener, which will feature Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers against Tim Lincecum of the Giants. Kershaw, who has won all three starts against San Francisco this season, is 19-5 with a 2.31 ERA. Lincecum is 13-12 with a 2.59 ERA.

The Giants (83-70) are coming off a four-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies, while the Dodgers beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-1 in their four-game set.

Posted by Don Taylor at 9:30 pm Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,

NFL Picks: St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants

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Sep 182011

NFL Picks previews the St. Louis Rams and the New York Giants meeting on Monday Night Football at MetLife Stadium (8:30 pm ET, ESPN).

There has been a lot of line movement in NFL Odds for this matchup, as the Giants opened as 4.5-point favorites but were bet up to as much as -7, where some books still have them, while others have New York at -6.5. The Giants opened as -260 favorites on the moneyline and are up to -280 and -290, while the Rams opened at +230 and are at +240 and +245. The over/under total is up slightly, from the opening of 43 to 44.

Head-to-head, New York is 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS in the past eight meetings, and three of the past four have gone over the total.

Both teams are winless heading into this matchup.    

The Rams, led by quarterback Sam Bradford,  are 0-1, both straight up and against the spread, after dropping at 31-13 decision to the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday, failing to cover as a 3.5-point home underdog. The score went over the total of 44.

Eli Manning and the Giants are also 0-1 SU and ATS. They lost 28-14 to NFC East division rival Washington Redskins. New York could not cover as a 1.5-point favorite and the score went over the total of 41.

Football Betting head-to-head trends have New York at 4-4 straight up and 5-3 against the spread in the past clashes, with three of the past four meetings going over the total.

St. Louis is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games on the road and New York is 4-2 SU in its last six at home.

Posted by Jack Clark at 9:58 pm Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,

Pro Football Picks: Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons

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Sep 172011

Pro Football Picks sets up the Philadelphia Eagles and the Atlanta Falcons squaring off in a highly anticipated NFL matchup on Sunday Night Football at the Georgia Dome (8:20 pm ET, NBC).

The spread for this tilt has been swinging wildly all week. Philadelphia opened as a 1-point favorite in NFL Odds but money on the Eagles quickly drove the spread up to -3. It is now at -2.5 at many books, and -2 at others. Conversely, the moneyline odds have held relatively steady, with Philly at -135 and Atlanta at +115. The over/under total has seen little movement, from the opening of 50.5 to 49.5.

Philadelphia (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), led by quarterback Michael Vick, the former Falcon who will be making his first return to Atlanta since going to prison on dog-fighting charges, beat the St. Louis Rams 31-13 in the season opener for both teams last week in St. Louis. Philadelphia cashed as a 3.5-point favorite and the score went over the total of 44.

Atlanta (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) lost 30-12 to the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field last Sunday. The Falcons failed to cover as a 1.5-point road favorite, and the score made it over the total of 40.5.

Head-to-head, Philadelphia is 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings. Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in the last nine clashes and 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12. The teams last met on Oct. 17 last season, when the Eagles won 31-17 as a 1.5-point home favorite.

NFL Picks trends show Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last five games on the road. Atlanta is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games and 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home.

Posted by admin at 3:02 pm Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,

NCAAF Picks: Texas Longhorns @ UCLA Bruins

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Sep 162011

NCAAF Picks previews two high-profile College Football matchups on Saturday, starting with the No. 23 Texas Longhorns facing the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl (3:30 pm ET, ABC).

College Football Odds opened with the Longhorns at -3 and they are up slightly to -4, while they have moved from -160 to -180 on the moneyline. UCLA is currently at +155 on the moneyline. There had been little movement on the over/under total, which opened at 45 and is now at 44.5.

College Football Betting consensus figures show 61 per cent of bettors are backing the ‘Horns to cover the spread, and 58 per cent on the over.

Texas (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) edged BYU Cougars 17-16 last weekend but failed to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite.  UCLA (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) beat the San Jose State Spartans 27-17 but failed to cash as 20.5-point faves.

The head-to-head series has UCLA at 3-0 SU and ATS in the past three meetings. Texas will be out to avenge a 34-12 upset loss against the Bruins on their home turf last Sept. 25. The Longhorns had been 15.5-point favorites in that game.

Also on Saturday, the Washington Huskies take on the No. 11 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium (3:30 pm ET, ABC).

Nebraska opened at -18 in NCAAF Odds but money on the Huskies has driven the spread down to -16.5. The over/under total has moved from 54 up to 55.

Nebraska is 3-1 SU and ATS in the past four meetings, and interestingly, the teams squared off twice last season after not meeting since 1998. The Cornhuskers drilled the Huskies 56-21 in September as a 3-point road favorite, but the Huskies got their revenge with a 19-7 upset win in the Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl, cashing as a 13.5-point underdog.

Posted by Mike Reynolds at 9:33 pm Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,

Football Picks: Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

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Sep 152011

Football Picks sets up the Dallas Cowboys looking for their first win of the NFL season when they face the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday at Candlestick Park (4:05 pm ET, FOX).

NFL Odds opened with the Cowboys as 3-point favorites and they have held steady at that number, with a couple of sportsbooks having them at -2.5. Dallas opened as a -150 moneyline favorite and has been bet down to -170, and the 49ers are a +145 underdog. The over/under is at 42.5 after opening at 41.5.

Dallas (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) blew a fourth-quarter lead and lost 27-24 to the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football last Sunday. But the Cowboys covered as a 6.5-point underdog and the score was over the total of 40.5.

San Francisco (1-0 SU and ATS) beat the Seattle Seahawks 33-17 on Sept. 11 and cashed as a 6-point home favorite. The score went over the total of 38.

NFL Betting trends show a major over trend, as the total has gone over in all five of the past five meetings, in 13 of the Cowboys’ last 14 overall and in six of their last seven on the road, in five of San Francisco’s last six overall, and in four of San Francisco’s last five at home.

Head-to-head, the teams have split the past eight meetings straight up, each at 4-4, while the 49ers have a slight edge against the spread at 4-3-1 ATS. They last met on Nov. 23, 2008, when the Cowboys won 35-22 and covered as a 9.5-point home favorite.

Posted by Don Taylor at 8:18 pm Tagged with: , , , , , , ,

College Football Picks: Auburn Tigers @ Clemson Tigers

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Sep 142011

College Football Picks action this weekend features a nationally televised tilt between the No. 21 Auburn Tigers and the unranked Clemson Tigers on Saturday at Memorial Stadium (12 pm ET, ABC).

Clemson opened as a 4-point favorite and are now at -3 in NCAAF Odds. On the moneyline, Clemson is a -155 favorite and Auburn a +135 underdog. The over/under total opened at 58 and is now up to 60.5 and 61.

Auburn (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) beat the Mississippi State Bulldogs 41-34 in a battle of SEC West division foes on September 10. The Tigers cashed as a 4.5-point underdog and the score easily made it over the total of 57.5.

Clemson (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) beat the Wofford Terriers 35-27 last Saturday but came nowhere near covering the spread as a 25-point favorite. The score went over the total of 47.5.

College Football Betting trends have Auburn at a perfect 5-0 in its past five both straight up and against the spread. The score has gone over the total in four of Auburn’s last six games. Clemson is a solid 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home but just 1-4 ATS in its last five games at home. The total has gone under in eight of Clemson’s last 11 games.

Auburn is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS in the past three meetings. The last two have stayed under the total. When the teams met on Sept. 18 last season, Auburn won 27-24 but failed to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite.

Posted by Jack Clark at 9:41 pm Tagged with: , , , , , ,

NFL Picks: Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints

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Sep 132011

NFL Picks sets up the Chicago Bears looking to go 2-0 against a hungry New Orleans Saints team seeking its first win when the teams clash Sunday at the Louisiana Superdome (1 pm ET, FOX).

NFL Betting Odds have seen some early line movement for this matchup, as the Saints opened as 7-point favorites but are now at -6.5 at most books, while the moneyline had them opening at -325 and now down to -310 and even -285 at a number of sportsbooks. The Bears have moved from their opening of -285 moneyline underdogs down to as low as -245. The over/under total opened at 47 and so far has held at that number.

Chicago (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) pulled off an upset in its season opener on Sunday, as the Bears beat the Atlanta Falcons 30-12 and easily cashed as a 1.5-point home dog at Soldier Field. The score went over the total of 40.5.

New Orleans lost its opener, falling 42-34 to the Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field last Thursday, the NFL season opener. The Saints could not cash as 4.5-point road underdogs, and the score easily cleared the total of 47.5.

Football Picks betting has Chicago 9-3 SU in its last 12 overall and 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in its last six away. The total has gone over in seven of Chicago’s last nine overall.

New Orleans has basically sucked of late, going 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five overall. The Saints are 3-6 ATS in their last nine at home.

Head-to-head, the teams are even at 5-5 SU and New Orleans is 5-3-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. They last met Dec. 11, 2008, when Chicago won 27-24, with the score a push as the Bears were 3-point home faves.

Posted by Mike Reynolds at 9:00 pm Tagged with: , , , , ,

NFL Week 1 Picks in Review

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Sep 132011

The best play in Week 1 NFL betting was the Over.  10 winners 4 losers and a push netted a +5.6 units for the Over backers.

  • Over plays in games with lower totals, 39.5 and under, were the top plays.  Six games were lined at 39.5 or under – 5 of these games cashed for Over backers for a plus 3.9 units.

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  • 7 Nfl teams scored 30+ points in Week 1. Buffalo topped the list with 41 points.  New England 38, Baltimore 35, Houston 34, San Francisco 33, Philadelphia 31, Chicago 30.  Only 3 Nfl teams scored in single-digits in Week 1.  Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis scored 7 points each.
  • The underdogs also took a bite out of the favorites as 9 dogs were winners compared to just 5 favorite winners.  One game landed on the total of -7.

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  • Road dogs were profitable in Week 1 going 6-3-1 for a plus 2.7 units.
  • Favorites who covered: Baltimore, San Francisco, New England, Philadelphia, and Houston.
  • Teams with new head coaches did not fare very well.  Of the 8 teams with new HCs, only San Francisco (Jim Harbaugh) and Oakland (Hue Jackson) were victors in Week 1.

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  • 11 of the 14 games were decided by 7 points or more.
  • 3 games were decided by 3 points or less.
  • Buffalo Bills had the largest margin of victory (34) in the 41 – 7 rout of the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars had the smallest margin of victory (2) in their 16 – 14 win over Tennessee.
Posted by GSP1 at 3:25 pm Tagged with: , , , ,
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